I just caught up with a TED talk, delivered by Chris Anderson, editor of Wired, on the four stages of the diffusion of new technology.
In the attached Word document, I have captured my notes on his idea. There's more in his presentation than what I have in these notes; I was wanting to capture the four stage model. (the screen shots are fuzzy as they are grabs of Flash video).
Stage 1: technology achieves a price tipping point, where the price is generally perceived as no longer a barrier to acquisition; stage 2, critical mass of adoption (he cites examples of 20% of households with DVDs, 2% of the car market now hybrids; stage 3, displacement where some long standing tech is displaced (the VCR in the case of the DVD), and stage 4, where it becomes free or nearly free (example $48 DVD players from China).
This talk was delivered in Feb 2004, which is why I said I just caught up with it. 2004! ancient history but the four stage model is still of interest, me thinks.
Posted by: Malcolm Brown | May 15, 2008 at 07:43 AM
I have Anderson's Long Tail book on audio if anyone wants it - a great read. I've found ways to assign this book in a variety of courses....I think Anderson's new book on "Free" will make a big impact when it comes out. Anderson is someone I'd love to figure out how to get to campus for a talk....that would be a big deal.
Posted by: Joshua Kim | May 15, 2008 at 08:03 PM